DESIGN OF A MATHEMATICAL PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE SIMULATION OF THE DEMAND FOR CONTROLLED CRITICAL SPARE PARTS OF THE UNIMOG 4000

Abstract

The research was based on the problematic generated by the nowdays logistic delayed on the critical parts controled by Unimong 4000, that affects the avaibility of the vehicle, during a certain period of time. The purpose of this investigation is to provide an alternative solution to problem explanianed, Through the simulation of a mathematical predictor model, that involves different logistic functions of maintaning, obtention and catering. With this it is pretended to decide the demand of critical parts controled for one specific period, getting lower the current logistics delay, and with this, improving the period of time in which is not available in basic recuperative maintenance. The above, through an analytical descriptive research, for the theoretical framework and the diagnosis of the current situation of logistic delay. Subsequently, through the exploratory correlational approach, the variables are selected and a mathematical predictive model of the demand for controlled critical spare parts is designed, which is finally simulated to obtain the expected results, and in turn modified in different scenarios of a controlled environment, which provides useful information for decision making.